This past year the Institute for Future Conflict launched its first annual essay contest, open to undergraduate students at Colorado State University, CU Boulder, Denver University, the United States Air Force Academy, and University of Colorado-Colorado Springs.
The prompt asked students and cadets: what lessons is the People’s Republic of China taking away from the war in Ukraine, and are these the lessons the United States wants it to internalize?
This week we are proud to publish the three winners of the contest.
China’s Path to Taiwan Runs Through the Global South
Perhaps the most meaningful lesson the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will take away from the conflict in Ukraine is the strategic importance Global South. In the days and weeks after Russia’s invasion, the United States and many of its allies implemented a series of sanctions, including the expulsion of Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international payment system, oil and gas import bans, and technology export restrictions. Russian crude oil exports to the EU dropped dramatically from 2.377 million barrels per day in February 2022 to a mere 0.37 million barrels per day by December of 2023. The United States and Europe cumulatively sent tens of billions of dollars’ worth of top-end military aid to support Ukraine. Private companies also responded by withdrawing from the Russian market. NATO eventually expanded, gaining two new members – Sweden and Finland – along Russia’s northern front as a direct result of Putin’s decision to invade.
The United States and its allies used nearly every economic tool at its disposal to isolate Russia. It has not worked. The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to grow 3.2% in 2024. To understand the limitation of Western policy it is necessary to scrutinize the responses of an often-overlooked region, the Global South. The refusal of many members of the Global South to comply with Western sanctions will impact the PRC geopolitical calculations in the coming years.
Over forty member states of the United Nations consistently abstained or voted against resolutions put forward by the West against Russia. Fifty members voted against the expulsion of Russia from the Human Rights Council in April 2022 despite significant evidence of widespread mass human right’s violations by the Russian military in Ukraine.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva argued that Ukraine shares the blame for the conflict and told reporters during a state visit to Beijing that the United States should stop “encouraging the war” in Ukraine. South Africa conducted joint naval drills with Russia on the first anniversary of the invasion and warmly welcomed Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in 2023. India went from near zero imports of Russian oil prior to Western sanctions to 1.585 million barrels of oil per day in December 2023. This accounts for 40% of India’s total crude imports, largely compensating for Russia’s losses from the EU. Brazil, South Africa, and India are also, of course, members of BRICS, an association comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
The PRC has long embraced and led multilateral efforts such as BRICS to create an alternative to the Western-led world order. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, five additional countries—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—have all suggested they will look to join the BRICS bloc. All of this suggests that the PRC will increasingly look to create parallel global systems as a way of sanction proofing its economy.
The conflict in Ukraine has also revealed a Global South vulnerability in NATO, the West’s principal alliance to counter Russia and increasingly the PRC. Turkey, the southernmost country in NATO, increasingly hedges between the West and Russia/China to maximize its own interests. Trade between Turkey and Russia is significantly higher than before the war, led by increased imports of Russian crude oil. Turkey also led prolonged efforts to stall Finland and Sweden from joining NATO to pressure the two countries to take a harder stance on Kurdish groups, which Ankara sees as terrorists. Since NATO operates on unanimity among all member countries, Turkey’s reluctance greatly threatens the cohesiveness of the bloc. In many ways, the actions of the Global South has given the PRC a playbook for how it can neutralize western sanctions.
Although the PRC seeks to avoid direct confrontation with the West, the PRC now has a clearer judgment of how to take advantage of western limitations. The present redistribution of global political and economic power appears to be shifting away from the West towards a burgeoning “rest.” More than 85% of the world’s population lives in countries that did not impose sanctions on Russia, far from being shut out of the world market. In 1980, the G7 collection of Western nations comprised 50% of the world’s GDP by purchasing power parity, today those counties account for only 30%. That is the same share held by the BRICS bloc.
The conflict in Ukraine powerfully demonstrates the multipolarity of today’s world order. International power no longer flows from a single hegemon, but rather a web of complex and diverse sources. Now, the PRC understands better than ever that its success to forcefully reunify Taiwan depends on the eighty-five percent of the world—the Global South. That’s why today the PRC actively seeks to diplomatically isolate Taiwan. In 1971, Taiwan had 56 official diplomatic relationships. As of August 2024, only 12 countries formally recognize the self-ruling island. As the last nations in the Global South withdraw their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, the likelihood of a Chinese invasion grows increasingly certain.
Max Lasco is a cadet first class at the United States Air Force Academy.