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Ukraine and Credible Deterence

To stop the invasion, the United States should have challenged three crucial Russian assumptions earlier in 2022.

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No Shortcuts Left: Deterring Russia's Invasion in 2022 was Impossible

After a decade of failed responses, there was little the United States could do in 2022 to change Putin's calculus.

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2025 IFC Christmas Book List

Our experts and fellows recommend their favorite books of 2025

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Failed Deterrence: What the United States Should Have Done Prior to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

To deter Russia, the United States should have provided more defensive weapons to Ukraine, increased its presence in the region, and amplified separatist movements within Russia.

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Meeting Steel with Steel: How the US Could Have Deterred Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

If the United States hopes to deter the threats of tomorrow, it must clearly communicate its capabilities and commitment to raising the costs of aggression for its adversaries.

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Outlining the Future Air Force: Mapping Future Concepts and Organizations

The Air Staff and the Joint Staff are drafting concepts of future warfare in a world where Airmen must fight just to get airborne.

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Bolstering Efforts to Preserve and Digitize Assad Regime Archives Will Help Syria and Benefit US National Security

Learning from the failures and success in Syria.

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Institute of Future Conflict 2026 Threat Horizon Report

We asked our military fellows what the most pressing issue facing American national security would be over the 2026 fiscal year.

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2024 IFC Christmas Books

Our experts and fellows recommend their favorite books of 2024

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Air Defense in the Age of Small Drones

Rethinking Air Defense after Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb

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Now Open: Dick and Rosalie Bush Fellowship in Economic Warfare

The IFC is seeking qualified candidates for the full-time, on-site position of Bush Fellow for Economic Warfare.

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Seller Beware: The Damage of Techno-Nationalism in Sino-Russia Military-Technological Cooperation

China's goal of achieving indigenous technological innovation encourages opportunistic behavior, which in turn damages its relationship with security partners.

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Revisiting the War Against ISIS: The History of Operation Inherent Resolve and its Future under the Trump Administration

The battlefield success of Operation Inherent Resolve holds lessons for great power competition.

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More Bang for Your Buck: Rethinking Current Practices to Prepare for the Future of Conflict

Mid-tier arms are cheaper, easier to use, easier to produce, and nimbler than the weapons usually associated with major land wars.

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The Dollars in the Fight: The Security Risks of Economic Compellence during a Conflict

One of the biggest shifts in great power competition includes global economic networks.

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New Books: Sara Castro on the Dixie Mission

Sara Castro investigates the Dixie Mission to the Chinese Communist Party in World War II and the origins of American intelligence operations in the Pacific

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Air Superiority is not Airpower

If the USAF carelessly imports poor doctrinal definitions from GWOT into GPC, the results could be disastrous.

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North Korea and the Second Trump Administration

‍Kim Jong Un is more mature, confident, and has a new place in the global order.

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Losing the Information War: How the PRC Controls the Global Narrative

The PRC has successfully steered the global narrative on Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and they are building the framework for a future Taiwan narrative. 

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Drones in Ukraine: A Frontline Report

This war is different, this war is the future, and it’s all because of drone warfare.

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Cost Analysis of Innovative Solutions to Air Base Defense in the Pacific

Given the financial and operational constraints, Ground-Based TARS emerges as the most practical solution for initial deployment on Guam.

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Pivotal Lessons from the War in Ukraine: The Value of Decentralized Command and Control

To prevail in an era of strategic competition, the United States must understand the lessons its adversaries are extracting from ongoing conflicts to anticipate change in future conflict scenarios.

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Keeping Arctic Logistics on Ice for Global Security

Russia and China are prioritizing Arctic development. The United States should do the same.

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Arctic
logistics
INDOPACOM

The Yemen Model

Why the US keeps getting it wrong in Yemen.

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Houthis
Yemen

Threading the Nuclear Needle: Expanded Targeting and Escalation Risks in the War in Ukraine

If the West is to help Ukraine prevail, accepting and managing risk will be a necessary component of future policy decisions.

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nuclear
Putin
Russia
Ukraine
NATO

North Korea and Russia: A Marriage of Convenience

The one lesson North Koreans have taught the world in their pursuit of nuclear weapons is that it may take them a while but eventually they figure it out.

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Putin
Russia
North Korea
Kim Jong Un
nuclear

New Books: Alexandra Stark on Yemen

Alexandra Stark argues that the United States has consistently gotten it wrong in Yemen by focusing almost exclusively on the security threat du jour instead of the country’s long-term stability.

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Russian Nuclear Thresholds after the Kursk Offensive

Despite the lack of notable Russian escalation in response to the Kursk offensive, it would be a mistake to simply dismiss Russia’s nuclear threats wholesale.

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Russia
Putin
nuclear

Economic Considerations for the Future Use of Coercive Force: What the PRC is Learning from the Russia-Ukraine War

The PRC is observing and learning about the ability of global actors to employ economic tools to punish the invasion of a foreign entity.

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Please Stop Saying "Human-In-The-Loop"

By repeating a conventional wisdom that is not present in policy, we obscure the importance of human judgment and its connection to the laws of war and just war principles.

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Artificial Intelligence

China’s Path to Taiwan Runs Through the Global South

The PRC understands better than ever that its success to forcefully reunify Taiwan depends on the Global South

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IFC Welcomes its Inaugural Class of Non-Resident Fellows

IFC's new Non-Resident Fellows arrive

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