Lt Col Kristen “KJ” Heiserman
One of the most challenging aspects in military strategy is balancing limited resources with unpredictable demands. When the United States transitioned from the counterterrorism wars of the 2000s and the early 2010s to great power competition in 2018, the answer seemed simple: prioritize INDOPACOM and reduce the US footprint in the Middle East. But as events of the past several months have revealed, it is much easier to write a strategy document than it is to put it into practice. The United States must now balance its resources in a world where terrorism has not disappeared while simultaneously preparing for strategic competition across the globe. Getting this balance will require increased attention to the Arctic.
The Arctic may be the one region where the United States is both drastically under-invested and the area where it is possible to anticipate significant need in the future. In particular, Alaska plays a key role in US missile defense and possesses the closest munition certified port to Taiwan. From the top of the globe, it is just under eight hours of flight time to Beijing and just over 8 hours to Moscow. Arctic sea routes all converge near Alaska's Bering Strait, and after years of detailed mapping of continental shelves, the US plans to expand its territorial claims in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea by an additional 987,700 square kilometers. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which Russia declared open year-round in 2021, cuts the distance from Europe to Japan by 9,000 miles compared to traditional routes through the Suez Canal. This strategic location could also make Alaska a fulcrum for global logistics if the United States is willing to make the right investments.
Alaska’s Strategic Importance
Debates surrounding the strategic importance of the Artic and Alaska are not new. In 1867, the United States purchased Alaska from Russia, which was initially ridiculed as "Seward's Folly." That contempt began to dissolve decades later in 1935 when General "Billy" Mitchell proclaimed before Congress that "whoever holds Alaska will hold the world."
In June 1942, Japanese forces seized Attu and Kiska islands, holding them until the Battle of the Aleutian Islands (June 1942-August 1943). The United States and Canada launched extensive operations to reclaim these islands, which required immense logistical efforts. From 1941 to 1945, the Lend-Lease program enabled support to 39 Allied nations and over half of the aircraft supplied to the Soviet Union passed through Ladd Field (now Eielson Air Force Base in Fairbanks). These events led to significant developments such as the construction of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and the Alaska Highway, and Alaska's statehood in 1959. These infrastructure improvements were expedited to accommodate the surge of 45,000 US troops and the 12 new military sites to defend the nation from the northern frontier.
However, after the Cold War, investment waned as the United States turned to the Middle East. Yet the recent rise of Chinese and Russian assertiveness should cause the United States to reconsider Alaska’s strategic importance. Alaska is positioned perfectly for forward deployment and staging for US military operations due to its proximity to Russia and the South China Sea.
The Ambitions of Rivals
By contrast, Russia knows the NSR is an economic asset and is investing resources to boost commercial transit along this route. Russia holds the largest Arctic territory in the world, with a coastline of 15,000 miles, making up about 20 percent of its total landmass and 53 percent of the Arctic coastline. The region is vital for Russia's economy, particularly due to its significant oil and gas reserves which contribute about 20 percent to the country's GDP.
In 2019, Russia invested $164.2 billion in its Arctic territories, with substantial backing from Chinese financial entities. Despite facing military challenges elsewhere, Russia continues to strengthen its Arctic presence by maintaining and expanding military infrastructure, including bases, submarine ports, airfields, and deep-water ports, and by enhancing its fleet of 40 icebreakers with 76mm armament.
In a 2018 white paper, China made its Arctic ambitions explicit by releasing its Arctic strategy and declaring itself a "near-Arctic State." The strategy includes the development of the Polar Silk Road, aligning with China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to connect East Asia with Europe via Arctic routes such as the Northwest Passage (NWP), NSR, and a potential future Transpolar Sea Route (TSR).
Since 2013, China has significantly engaged in the Arctic, marking six transits that moved ten million tons of goods like gas, oil, grain, and coal primarily through the NSR. A notable portion of this maritime traffic involves vessels that either originate from or are destined for Chinese ports. This level of activity starkly contrasts with the more limited US engagement in the Arctic, which includes a few North Pole traversals by the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy, some in conjunction with China's Xue Long II icebreaker, suspected of conducting military operations under scientific pretenses.
China’s Arctic investments are extensive and strategic, focusing on economic, scientific, and infrastructure developments. These investments are particularly concentrated in Greenland, where they have significantly impacted Greenland’s economy, including securing a mining license for the Isua iron mine near Nuuk. China's investments also include collaboration with Russian companies in the Arctic, participating in projects like seismic mapping, deep-water drilling rigs construction, and port developments along the Northern Dvina River. A new railway to transport raw materials from Siberia to these ports is also under development.
US Challenges
The logistical challenges posed by Alaska’s isolation and harsh environment are complex, made worse by distance. This is exacerbated by the lack of adequate transportation and resupply in and through Alaska. Alaska's road network is only about 14,336 miles of public roads compared to 313,000 miles in Texas, which is almost 2.5 times smaller than Alaska. Given Alaska’s limited rail capacity, Alaska relies heavily on airlifts, trucking, or shipping for transporting supplies, equipment, and personnel.
The Don Young Port of Alaska in Anchorage is a designated as a US Commercial Strategic Seaport, which handles 90 percent military sustainment. It is also the only port in Alaska certified to receive aviation fuel. Despite its significance, the port’s infrastructure is aging, the docking capacity is limited, all made worse by erosion and seismic activity. Thankfully, the United States is now taking steps to correct this with an estimated $2 billion dollar modernization project, which kicked off in June 2024.
The Port of Nome is also undergoing a $490 million upgrade to improve its capabilities as a strategic logistics hub in the Arctic, enhancing its role in homeland defense and support for operations in northern and western Arctic seas. This includes infrastructure improvements to accommodate larger vessels, enhancing the port's role in cargo transport, search and rescue, emergency response, and resource exploration.
The Port of Valdez is a deepwater port that offers year-round, ice-free access to the Gulf of Alaska and the North Pacific Ocean. Its strategic position makes it indispensable for military operations in the Arctic region and the Pacific Rim, providing a vital entry and exit point for supplies, military personnel, and equipment. Valdez is the southern terminus of the North Slope’s Trans-Alaska pipeline, handling over 95 percent of the state’s crude oil. Valdez is the only seaport in Alaska certified to handle munitions and the closest US munition certified port to Taiwan. Valez’s importance is stressed even more because there is no rail link from the contiguous United States to Alaska. Munitions are likely transported via roadway, which is concerning because of Alaska's lack of roadway and winter conditions, which could limit the window for resupply.
Establishing a rail link, like the previously proposed Alaska to Alberta (A2A) railway, would facilitate quicker movement of military and commercial goods, enhancing the United States’ strategic posture in the Arctic and across the Pacific. Unfortunately, the project is currently on hold. Still, the potential for reducing shipping times by linking the Port of Valdez and Anchorage to the North American rail network could significantly impact military and commercial operations, potentially shortening delivery times between North America and Asia by two to four days, enhancing responsiveness in conflict scenarios.
Conclusion
The United States and its allies must prioritize infrastructure investment that is adaptable and flexible to respond to changing conditions and emerging threats, ensuring long-term security in the Arctic. This requires a multifaceted approach that fosters collaboration among Arctic nations and stakeholders to develop forward thinking logistics plans. This involves understanding and integrating logistics into every aspect of strategic planning, from peacetime operations to potential conflict scenarios. Senior-level decision-makers must recognize the region’s strategic potential, revisiting insights of early visionaries like Billy Mitchell, ensuring readiness for whatever challenges arise as global dynamics evolve.
Lt Col Kristen “KJ” Heiserman, is a fellow at The Institute for Future Conflict and an instructor of management at the United States Air Force Academy. She is a senior Air Force Special Operations Command pilot with more than 2,300 flying hours and has served at the wing and combatant command levels, most recently as the speechwriter for the commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command & US Northern Command.
Editor’s Note: The original, longer version of this article was published by USAFA’s Homeland Defense Institute in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs. The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US Air Force, the US Department of Defense, or the US government.